Playing against a draw on Betfair
As you know in football there are 3 outcomes: 2 wins and a draw. Playing in the bookmaker office, you bet on one outcome out of three possible and overage for it to the victorious (or not) end. With Petes Betfair Method you can play against the victory of the first team, against the second victory or against the draw. We choose the latter option, because the match starts with a score of 0: 0 and at some point it usually becomes 1: 0. Accordingly, and the coefficient for a draw changes in some direction. It is on this that the principle of this strategy is worked: to put against a draw with a coefficient of 3.2 to 4.7, and after the first goal to bet on a draw with a higher coefficient so that the profit is evenly distributed for all possible outcomes.
For example, take the match of the World Cup 2010 Germany-Australia. Before the match, I had a personal opinion that Germany with its powerful attack will sooner or later break the resistance of the Australians and it will happen in the first half. Just in case, I still ran a couple of forums about football, after which I finally decided for myself that this match is suitable for playing against a draw on Betfair. Before the start of the match, the odds for the draw were 4.0 and against the draw 4.1. We bet against a draw at $ 105 at the specified odds. Now we have +105 dollars if one of the teams wins and - $ 325 if there is a draw.
Now look at our financial situation in this market. After the first bet on two sides (team wins) there is already a profit of + $ 105, and one side (a draw) incurs a loss of $ -325. Now we are betting on the "minus side" in such a way that regardless of the outcome of the match, the profit was in our pocket. In our case, this is a draw on a draw of $ 59.79 - it is accordingly written off from the plus balance sheets of the victories of Germany and Australia - and we have $ 45 on all sides of this market ($ 105-59.79 = $ 45.21 that's what happens to the winning teams markets, and $ 59.79? 7.20- $ 325 = $ 45.7 with a draw market). Now you can just watch football, drinking tea or coffee, because regardless of the outcome of the match we will have + $ 45 profit.
Everything would be simple, if it were not so difficult. The strategy is really very easy to use and even a beginner can steadily be able to earn money on it. But as is known as there is no perpetual motion machine, there is no ideal betting (or trading) system. The strategy of playing against a draw in football will not always bring you profit because:
1) The favorite of the match often passes first. At this point, the coefficient for a draw falls instead of growing. Accordingly, you will be forced either to wait for the scenario development of the match in favor of the outsider, or to leave the market with a small minus. If after the first goal the coefficient for a draw fell, then it is recommended to leave the market with tolerable losses. Of course, you can not go out, but remember that the public will believe in the favorite until the last one and when he raises the score (which most often happens) the coefficient for a draw will fall even lower, and then the loss will be tangible.
2) About 8% of football matches end with a score of 0: 0, so with a probability of about 10% you risk just do not wait for a goal. There is a suggestion that matches broadcast on TV (namely such matches are given in live on Betfair) tend to increase the percentage of zero draws because of the principledness and importance of matches that are chosen for broadcasts.
Fortunately, the problem of a goalless draw in this strategy may not bother you if you bet on the score 0: 0 before the match. The amount of the bet must be such that in case of a loss, you cover your payment obligation in case of a draw. Of course, this will seriously reduce the profitability of the strategy, because Full insurance will take up to 70-90% of the possible profits, but the strategy will be almost win-win, especially if you bet on the matches without the participation of a clear favorite, who can miss first.
To insure the score 0-0 is more logical in matches where the outsider does not have a great attack potential, but both teams are good at protecting. It's just that in such matches, the outsider closes in his own half and sometimes at more than 65 minutes of playing time, the opponent's opening takes more than 65 minutes.
RECOMMENDATIONS
As in any case, you need to be careful in using this strategy. Here is a list of recommendations for those who want to try this strategy on the betting exchange Betfair.
1) Choose matches where there is no obvious favorite. In such matches, the coefficient for a draw usually ranges between 3.2 and 3.9. In such matches, a goal at any gate either yields profit or you can exit the market with virtually no losses.
2) Do not play against a draw if the exchange rate is lower than 3.05. The public is waiting for a draw in this match and the market will lead in a special way.
3) Choose the teams that score themselves and give to score to themselves. So there is less chance to run into a zero draw to the 65-70 minute. If you still see that there is a probability of a zero match, but are very confident in winning the favorite 1: 0 or 2: 0 just in case, insure a zero draw before the match, so that it was not painfully painful afterwards.
4) Do not play against a draw if the coefficient is higher than 4.7; If the favorite misses the first loss may be too great. It is better to wait until the coefficient in the live is lowered to a more acceptable one.
5) Your face value of the bet against should not be more than 7-10% of your bank. In that case, you will be more likely to accept defeats, if any.
